Used car market to reach 7.86 million units in 2018

The UK's used car market will reach 7.86 million units in 2018, if current market trends stay on track, according to new research from Cox Automotive.

In its first published forecast of full-year used car transactions Cox Automotive predicts the market will drop by just -3.7% compared with 2017, when 8.11 million units were sold.

The forecast will make 2018 the third biggest market for used cars in the last five years and will be achieved despite uncertainty around the economy, Brexit and diesel all having a negative impact on used car buyers.

"The used car market has so far turned in a solid performance this year and our forecast of 7.86 million transactions by the end of 2018 would be a remarkable achievement for a market facing the headwinds of Brexit, the demonisation of diesel, economic uncertainty and the fall in new car sales," said Philip Nothard of Cox Automotive.

"If current trending continues then dealers will continue to reap the benefits of sourcing and selling the right used cars for the right customers.

"We are encouraged by the continued strength of the used car sales reported in a succession of interim results from the listed franchised dealer groups and our market intelligence on sales in the independent sector."

The inaugural used forecast follows the recent publication of the Cox Automotive H1 & June Overview which revealed the current strength of diesel in the used market, reduced stocking days in the independent sector, an increase in sold prices in the wholesale market and dealers evenly split between those expecting the economy to improve or decline.

As the world's largest automotive service organisation, Cox Automotive can combine data from across the entire vehicle lifecycle and over the coming months will be sharing more of its forecasting and market insights with the automotive sector.

Notes to editors

2018 Used Car Forecast Methodology
Cox Automotive's statistical analysis of the used car market uses Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) change of ownership data up to March 2018. The analysis tracked year-on-year and seasonal trends using an ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average) model, which makes predictions for April to December to give our full-year forecast. The forecast was moderated using the latest projections on the economy from GFK and Office for National Statistics. Further notes on the methodology will be published on in due course.

About Cox Automotive
Cox Automotive is the world's largest automotive service organisation, providing solutions to our clients at every stage of the vehicle lifecycle. We help dealers, manufacturers, fleet and leasing companies to boost the value of their assets, improving performance and profitability. In the UK, Cox Automotive provides inventory, financial, media and retail solutions to clients including franchised and independent dealers, car supermarkets, vehicle manufacturers and fleet and leasing companies. Cox Automotive brands in the UK include Manheim, Dealer Auction, Movex, RMS, NextGear Capital,, Modix, incadea, and The group employs more than 2,300 team members in the UK and works with thousands of businesses throughout the automotive industry.

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